cycle forecast and planetary correlations
Jan Benestad at www.sibet.org
Tidal forces and wobble
The Sun wobbles, when seen from outside the solar system.
If the Sun only had one planet, Jupiter in a circular orbit, the wobble
would be constant.
But Saturn and the other planets make the wobble-rate more complex and
changing all the time.
I think this changing wobble has some some kind of effect on the
Sun, that results in sunspots.
Maybe the changing wobble deforms the sun, or affects the rotation or
I simplify my analysis and concentrate on the two major planets that
affect the wobble: Jupiter and Saturn
What I find, is that stable wobble (around Jupiter-Saturn
conjunctions/oppositions) results in low sunspot activity.
And changing wobble results in higher sunspot activity.
Maximum sunspot activity typically occurs after the maximum
wobble-change (about 2 years lag). But the highest rate of change in
sunspot activity correlates well with wobble change.
The synodic Jupiter-Saturn cycle is about 20 years, and 10 years
between conjunctions and oppositions.
So the sunspot cycle should be about 10 years. But it isn´t...
-Because there is another important (perhaps even more important)
effect - the tidal forces.
Simplyfied the tidal force from a planet is a m/r^3 effect, and the
significant planets are Jupiter, Venus, Earth and Mercury (in
that order). And high tidal force means higher sunspot activity.
So there are two major mechanisms that affect sunspot activity. They
may be separate, or perhaps the wobble and tidal forces are connected
(high change in wobble makes higher tidal force?)
When examining the tidal forces for the solar system we find some
-the Jupiter orbit is elliptical. So the tidal forces from Jupiter are
highest when Jupiter is around it´s perihelion every ~12 years
-Venus and Earth have near circular orbits, but Mercury has an elliptic
orbit. The strongest tidal effect from Mercury is at it´s
perihelion, which is near 90 degrees from the Jupiter perihelion. The
result is that Mercury has a dampening effect on the Jupiter tidal
force just around the Jupiter perihelion (when the Jupiter force is
highest). And also a dampening effect when Jupiter is at aphelion
(lowest tidal force)
-the last but maybe most important pattern are the Venus+Earth+Jupiter
syzygies, when all three planets are alligned (conjunct or opposed)
when seen from the Sun. These syzygies are strongest every ~11 years
(on average) and correlates with the average sunspot cycle length
So there are three major cycles of approx 10, 11 and 12 years that
affect the sunspot cycle, and they all show up in the fourier spectrum
of monthly sunspot-data.
There could be an unifying theory that incorperates these three cycles,
but so far I analyze them separately.
In periods we can see that one of these cycles dominate, while the
other(s) are less significant.
In periods of strong solar cycles it is typically the short 10 year
cycle that dominate, and in periods of weak solar cycles it is the
longer 12 year cycle that dominate.
When examining past solar cycles we can find some helpful and important
patterns and supercycles.
Donations will be a great motivator to update/add material :)